In recent years, many changes have taken place in the circulation and consumption of the Chinese automobile market. The growth rate of new cars has declined and the used car market has entered a new growth stage. The high-end consumption trend is also showing some new changes, and imported models are developing in the direction of intelligence and green.

In the sub-forum of the 2018 China Automotive Forum a few days ago, guests, experts and scholars at the meeting expressed their views on the current consumption and trends of the Chinese automotive market.

Policy changes open up more space for automobile circulation

As a strategic pillar industry in our country, the automobile industry has a pivotal position in the country’s social life. In recent years, automobile consumption has gradually increased.

At the forum, Xiao Rongchen, director of the Policy Division of the Department of Market System Construction, Ministry of Commerce, pointed out that the characteristics of the new economic normal have been fully demonstrated in the auto market. From the slowdown in new car sales growth to the conversion of growth momentum, it reflects the basic situation of the entire industry accelerating the supply-side structural reform.

In 2017, the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Measures for the Administration of Automobile Sales" (hereinafter referred to as the "Measures"), which is a milestone in the development of my country's automobile distribution system. The new automobile sales management method has broken the single system of automobile authorization, and the changes brought about by my country's automobile market are fundamental. For a period of time in the future, a system dominated by authorization systems such as 4S stores will still exist. After the authorization is broken, this diversified sales system will promote the healthy, coordinated and sustainable development of the automobile market, and will bring a continuous source of power and energy. vitality. The promulgation of the "Measures" is to accelerate the construction of a shared and economical socialized automobile system, and it also opens up space for a variety of sales in e-commerce automobile supermarkets and automobile stores in the future.

According to the introduction, the future automobile market circulation will change from self-built and self-used to co-built and shared characteristics, and single store single product will change to multiple stores and multiple products. At the same time, automobile manufacturers or OEMs can sell their own cars and products through multiple channels, while dealers can sell cars of multiple brands at the same time. In this way, consumers can purchase cars through multiple channels and various ways and enjoy richer and more complete social services.

Xiao Rongchen pointed out that advancing the construction of a shared automobile system is conducive to the downward focus of the automobile circulation system. With the accelerated development of the country’s urbanization, rural areas and third- and fourth-tier cities have great potential for automobile consumption. The main purpose is to solve the continuous sinking of the center of gravity of the automobile circulation system and turn the potential into a real power. This is of great significance to the development of new energy vehicles, including automobile e-commerce.

"Although the growth rate of the automobile market has slowed down, it is still stable. The base of my country's automobile market is relatively large. Even if the growth rate is only 3% or 4%, the incremental part is also very huge. I believe there will be room for the development of the automobile market. It's getting bigger and bigger," Xiao Rongchen said.

New energy vehicle imports will gradually increase

Data shows that starting from 2017, the auto import market has shown a recovery growth trend and has remained stable as a whole. Although there was a relatively obvious continuous decline in 2015 and 2016, the analysis is not due to the decline in overall market demand. The localization of some hot-selling models is an important reason for the decline in the total number of imported vehicles. In 2017, as the progress of localization slowed down, the total amount of auto imports returned to the scale of 1.2 million vehicles.

Jia Yi, Chairman of China Imported Automobile Trading Co., Ltd. analyzed at this forum that the current consumption trend and consumption structure of the imported car market are more consistent with those of domestically-produced cars. They are all in the process of continuous structural upgrading. At the same time, B-class cars and C-class cars are subdivided The share will increase significantly, and the share of imported cars from luxury brands including new energy sources will also increase. Parallel imports will continue to maintain rapid growth. Parallel imports mainly supply high-end and personalized products to the market. Imports of new energy vehicles will gradually increase in the next two years.

According to Jia Yi, there has been a rapid growth since 2014 with the support of national policies. Parallel imports accounted for only 7.7% in 2014 and 14.2% in 2017. With the future reduction of tariffs, this situation will continue to expand. However, he believes that after parallel imports reach 20%, it will not expand indefinitely, because some sources of goods, including some supply prices, still have restrictions.

In recent years, my country's pilot parallel import of automobiles has achieved remarkable results. Up to now, there are 17 provinces and cities, and 20 ports, carrying out parallel import trials. In 2017, the number of vehicles reached 136,000, an increase of 103% year-on-year. Under the premise of increasing pressure on foreign trade and slowing economic growth, parallel imports can suddenly emerge, which is inseparable from policy construction. Xiao Rongchen said that with the maturity of conditions, the scope of parallel import trials will gradually expand, and with the accelerated replication and promotion of this reproducible experience, parallel import should be able to achieve greater development. Parallel imports embodies the spirit of supply-side structural reforms. From the source, it not only meets diversified and multi-level consumer needs, but more importantly, it has a stimulating effect on the entire automobile market. Let the reform of the auto market return to rationality.

In terms of exports, Zhang Zhenhua, vice president of Nielsen Greater China, believes that although Chinese companies have a lot more equipment than foreign car companies, their prices are always low due to insufficient brand power. In recent years, with the acceleration of Chinese brands going global, more and more manufacturers are going out, faster and faster. There are indeed great opportunities. For this reason, Chinese companies should unite and work together in the process of going overseas. Win the market.

Unmanned driving will be the main factor of disruptive change

When talking about the issue of trend change, Bohan Kang, a partner of Roland Berger Greater China Office, pointed out that the future will have a profound impact on the automotive industry from four trends, namely MADE.

Among them, M stands for mobility, as well as consumers and car owners. It means that this change from owning a car to using a car is an increasingly common change for us. A means automation, which means more and more opportunities for people to drive. D stands for digitalization. Every car and the services attached to the car will become part of the Internet. E represents the trend of trams, trams will have a huge impact on the world, bring earth-shaking changes to the industry, and make the performance of the car change a lot. When these four major trends are combined, it is what we call a disruptive environment.

Kang Bohan believes that in the future, auto-driving cars will provide a service, and it will also be cheaper. Compared with the current Didi taxis, it will be much cheaper. This kind of shared service will be an expectation of society.

But according to statistics, not everyone likes autopilot. Autonomous driving in the Indian market is not advancing quickly. And American consumers, among their choices, may prefer to drive by themselves rather than use self-driving vehicles, especially in densely populated cities.

Kang Bohan pointed out that in emerging economies, China and India have reflected different situations. Consumers may want to buy self-driving vehicles and also want to own their own cars. Therefore, for auto manufacturers, It is particularly important to provide a complete consumer solution for the needs of the market and the attitudes of consumer groups, as well as the location and frequency of use of different consumer vehicles.

Nowadays, some automobile manufacturers can already manufacture or develop a stereotyped and customized car model for a specific industry. These companies do not need to consider using traditional sales channels to promote their customized vehicles. On the contrary, they will carry out special design and production for the needs of specific industries.

Under this business model, the company’s supplier chain will become very simple and the retail channel will be eliminated. Such a demand alone is expected to reach a demand of 25 million vehicles in 2025.

This also indicates that a new model has appeared in the corporate product price strategy, and the price will be 50% lower than the traditional retail channel. Therefore, Chinese automobile manufacturers must have sufficient pre-judgment, under the premise of low cost, manage their own teams, strengthen operations and allocate investment rationally, and increase investment in new energy vehicles.